Coronavirus transmission in Hidalgo in decline until September 11, but not deaths

José Aurelio Granados Alcantar
Ph.D. in Regional Development and Territorial Planning

All available indicators to evaluate the epidemiological situation of COVID-19 indicate that the worst of the third transmission in Hidalgo is over. This past week (September 5-11), 1,579 cases were recorded, 19% less than last week (August 29-September 4), when 1,950 cases were recorded, but 42% less than the week of August 15-21, when the highest number of infections of this wave was recorded with 2,706 (see graph 1).

For this reason, the Effective Reproduction Rate (the average number of people to whom each infected individual can transmit the virus) was at a low level of transmission with 0.8, that is, one infected person does not infect another (See image 1).

Similarly, hospitalizations continued to decline, with general hospital beds at 53.4% on September 11, compared to 76.4% occupancy on August 21; ventilator beds were 43.7% on September 11, compared to 66.9% on August 21; and the occupancy of ventilator beds in Intensive Care Units (ICU) was 27.3% on September 11, compared to 84.6% on August 21.

While cases of coronavirus transmission continue to decline, deaths are not. Even the week of August 29-September 4 was the week with the highest number of deaths in this third wave, with 161 deaths reported. Although in this last week they dropped to 137 deaths (see Graph 2), these are still very hard figures. However, given the decline in the transmission of infections and the levels of ICU ventilator beds, it is now expected that in the following weeks there will be a considerable drop in the number of deaths.

On the other hand, municipal epidemiological curves show that transmission in the five most populated municipalities in the state: Pachuca, Mineral de la Reforma, Tizayuca, Tulancingo and Huejutla are in decline. Only in the municipalities of Apan, Tepeapulco and Atotonilco de Tula has transmission not yet been controlled (see Figures 1 to 6).

In the municipalities with the largest populations, there has been a decrease in cases. Tulancingo registered the greatest decrease, going from 338 infections on August 21 to 140 on September 11, a reduction of almost 60% of infections in these three weeks; similarly, Pachuca, Tizayuca, Tula, Huejutla, Tepeji del Río, Mineral de la Reforma, Ixmiquilpan and Atotonilco de Tula have reduced their infections (see Table 1).

The highest incidence rate of coronavirus infections as of September 21 is in the municipalities of Molango, Nopala, Apan, Xochicoatlán, Tepeapulco, Ajacuba, Tlaxcoapan, Juárez Hidalgo and Tasquillo with rates above 100 infected per 100,000 inhabitants, which indicates that the epidemic is out of control in these municipalities according to the parameters of the World Health Organization (WHO).

Only Eloxochitlán, Jaltocán and Nicolás Flores have no registered cases of coronavirus in the state as of September 21; while Cardonal, Tenango and Xochiatipan have only one case (See Table 2).

With these indicators, it is expected that next week, new municipalities will announce that they will begin the process of opening primary and secondary schools, thus gradually incorporating children and adolescents to face-to-face educational activities, which have been cancelled since April of last year.