2022, flattening the curve again

José Aurelio Granados Alcantar
Ph.D. in Regional Development and Territorial Planning

The increase of coronavirus cases in Hidalgo was a fact in the last week of the year 2021. The number of infected people rose exponentially, on Thursday, December 23, 14 cases were reported; then, due to vacations, there was no report until the 26th, when 62 new infections were reported. But from the 28th the numbers began to rise, that day 45 were registered, on the 29th there were 75, on the 30th, 110 and on December 31st 115 (see graph 1).

These contagion figures had not been recorded since October and were the result of the pre-Christmas holidays, since it takes an average of more than five days for an infected person to manifest the disease, which means that in the coming days the number of cases will continue to increase.

But even though this is an unfavorable scenario, we all hidalguenses faced it at the beginning of 2021 when the year started with an average of 158 daily infections and 198 deaths occurred in the first week, so this 2022 starts with an average of 51 daily cases and only one death occurred. It is obvious that the scenario is different because the vaccination plan has been a success. Even so, the priority will be to "flatten the curve" to reduce the risk of the new Omicron variant already circulating in Hidalgo.

It was to be expected that the Christmas gatherings would increase the cases of coronavirus because it was almost impossible to respect measures such as healthy distance and the use of masks, but above all not to hug after last year many of us stopped seeing family, friends or acquaintances on these dates. With the pandemic more or less manageable, the Christmas holidays returned to almost every home.

While 2021 was a very tough year in the first quarter, the numbers we reached December with gave hope that the pandemic was behind us. But the pandemic is far from over and it seems that the virus is waiting for these moments to resurface; it is hard to believe that at this point there is still no light at the end of the tunnel.

But what should be clear to us is that this virus will not disappear overnight, the new normal will be to have periods with few infections and suddenly the infections will intensify, this is the normality to which we must get used to, to live with the virus for several years, a scenario that we must internalize.